What is myTrainingForecast?
myTrainingForecast connects to Strava, reads every run, and estimates your risk of an overuse injury from how fast your training load is climbing. After each activity it recalculates and emails you if your risk level has changed. The pitch it makes, and the reason the model is the whole product: your aerobic system adapts in days, but tendons, ligaments and bone take weeks to months, so you can feel great right up until the week that hurts you.
It's a web app operated by Scitracs Ltd, running since 2017, with no ads, no data selling and no outside investors.
Key Features
The acute:chronic workload ratio, in five zones
The free model divides your last 7 days of load by your 28-day average, following Blanch & Gabbett (2015). myTF splits the result into five bands rather than the usual three: purple below 50% (detraining fast), blue from 50 to 80% (normal in a taper, risky if sustained), green from 80 to 130% (the range research associates with the lowest injury rates), orange from 130 to 150% (fine as a deliberate build, not as a habit), and red above 150%. The site is upfront that these are population guidelines, that single-ratio metrics have known limitations, and that some runners live in the orange without trouble while others get hurt at 120%.
Cumulative overload risk
This is the part you won't find elsewhere. ACR's 7-and-28-day windows can't see structural adaptation, which happens over months. Cumulative overload analyses your training spikes on a rolling three-month timescale, closer to the timelines in tendon adaptation research, and moves slowly on purpose: one big week barely shifts it, but a sustained build that outpaces your tendons pushes it up and keeps it there. myTF says it isn't aware of another consumer running app modelling connective tissue on a multi-month timescale, and invites you to tell them if you find one.
Planner
Schedule your upcoming runs and watch the projected ACR move before you do them. One week ahead on free, twelve weeks on Premium, and the Premium planner covers rides and swims as well as runs. This is the feature that matters most for a return from injury, when a drop in chronic load means a modest run can spike you into the red.
Premium's model is a different model, not a bigger one
Premium replaces the single ACR value with a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. It runs separate acute-to-chronic ratios for weekly distance, longest run and elevation gain (a hilly week and a single long run are not the same stress) and combines them with age, sex, running experience, injury history and baseline mileage. A 50 km week that's routine for a veteran is a big jump for someone off Couch to 5K, and the population-average model can't tell those apart.
History and air quality
Free gives you one month of history charts. Premium gives you five years, plus elevation charts, personalised risk and ACR email alerts, and air quality for where you train.
Who It's For
- Injury-prone runners stuck in the train, break, recover, repeat loop
- Runners building mileage who want a number instead of the 10% rule
- Comeback runners, where the planner earns its keep: after time off, your chronic load has collapsed and even an easy run reads as a spike
- Marathon and ultra trainers carrying high load over long blocks
- Not a substitute for a physio, and the site says as much: it models training load, which is one risk factor among several, and it can't predict a rolled ankle
How does myTrainingForecast calculate injury risk?
The free model uses the acute:chronic workload ratio: your training load over the past 7 days divided by your average weekly load across the past 28 days, following Blanch and Gabbett. Ratios above 150% sit in the red zone, associated with the highest reported overuse injury risk. Premium swaps that single ratio for a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model that also weighs distance, longest run, elevation gain, age, sex, experience and injury history.
Why might my injury risk go up during a rest week?
Because a rapid drop in load counts too. Below 80% ACR you're in the blue zone, and below 50% the purple zone, where fitness and structural adaptation both decay, which makes the return to normal training the risky part. Steady training is safer than swinging between high volume and complete rest.
Does it work for anything other than running?
The free tier is running only. Premium's planner and charts cover runs, rides and swims, so you see total load across all three rather than pretending the bike miles don't exist.
What injuries does it cover?
Overuse injuries: runner's knee, IT band syndrome, Achilles tendonitis, shin splints, stress fractures, plantar fasciitis. It explicitly does not cover trauma injuries like an ankle sprain from tripping, which can't be predicted from training data.
What does Premium cost?
The site doesn't publish a price. It says the yearly subscription "costs less than a session of physio", includes a 7-day free trial, and is billed through Stripe or PayPal. But the actual number only appears once you're signed in. The free tier needs no card at all.
Is the free tier actually useful on its own?
Yes, with real limits. You get the ACR model, a one-week planner, one month of history charts and email alerts when your risk changes, all without a card. What you don't get is the personalised model, multi-sport, the twelve-week planner or more than a month of history, and history is what tells you which spike preceded your last injury.
